The SHARP Shooter: Thursday 9/19 Best Bets
Sharps, in gambling terms, are the professionals in the gambling industry. Rarely do the sharps fall on the "fun" bets like betting on the favorites or betting on the under total. The sharps usually go against public popular line-- taking advantage of inflated lines and mismatched numbers due to a large percentage of public bets on a certain play.
The easiest spots to find sharp plays are in nationally televised games, primetime games, and big games between popular teams with, teams with star players and rivals that get a lot of air time during the week on sports media.
It is important that you do your own homework and look at trends, as well. Simply going contrarian against the popular public bet won't always be profitable. Find the games that work best for your bet and your budget. Pay attention to sharp trends-- you rarely want to be on the wrong side of the pros.
Games on Thursday we are looking at sharp action (stats courtesy of VSiN.com):
NCAA 7:00 P.M. CST: Houston (1-2) at Tulane (2-1) -5
This is a American Athletic Conference Thursday night showdown. Tulane opened up at the -3 home favorite. The public, fresh off watching Houston hang with the #20 Washington State Cougars, ran with the points. Seven out of ten bets from the public backed the road dogs. Sharps, however, like the favorite Green Wave and moved this line to -5. The sharps, bought low on a favorite and moved the line two full points-- this type of sharp action is referred to "Fade The Trendy Dog".
The pros have also jumped in on the total. The over/under opened at 60 in the books. The total has been moved down to 56.5. Weather has been a big factor in the total moving down so much. 12 MPH winds are expected at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans. According to Bet Labs Sports, when the wind is blowing at 8 MPH or higher and the total has maintained or lowered, the under has won 55.9% of the time since 2005.
NFL 7:20 P.M. CST: Tennessee Titans (1-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) +1.5
Both teams are currently 1-1 Against The Spread. The Titans, despite being 3 point home favorites, lost straight up to the Colts. The Jaguars lost 13-12 on the road to Houston but covered as 7 point dogs.
The public is heavy on the Titans with seven of ten bets laying the points. Tennessee opened at -2 favorites but the line has fallen to -1.5 because of sharp action on the Jags. Some fun with numbers: since 2003, divisional dogs in September have gone 56% ATS (including 7-5 this season). Plus, teams that start the year 0-2 have covered 56% of of the time in Week 3.
There is heavy action from the sharps on the total, too. Books opened this game at a very low 40. The low number did not scare the pros and they jumped on the UNDER in a hurry-- moving the line to fall to 38.5. The forecast calls for 14 MPH crosswinds at TIAA Bank Field. Since 2003, when the wind is blowing at 10 MPH or more in a division game the under has cashed at a 50% clip.
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