The SHARP Shooter: THURSDAY 10/3 TNF, NCAA, AND 2 NLDS GAMES
Sharps, in gambling terms, are the professionals in the gambling industry. Rarely do the sharps fall on the "fun" bets like betting on the favorites or betting on the over total. The sharps usually go against public popular line-- taking advantage of inflated lines and mismatched numbers due to a large percentage of public bets on a certain play.
The easiest spots to find sharp plays are in nationally televised games, primetime games, and big games between popular teams with, teams with star players and rivals that get a lot of air time during the week on sports media.
It is important that you do your own homework and look at trends, as well. Simply going contrarian against the popular public bet won't always be profitable. Find the games that work best for your bet and your budget. Pay attention to sharp trends-- you rarely want to be on the wrong side of the pros.
We have got a bug Thursday night for sports, including a NFC West Division showdown on Thursday Night Football and TWO MLB Playoff games. Plus, there are two college football games tonight.
LET'S SEE WHERE THE SHARPS ARE MAKING PLAYS TODAY...
NFL THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
7:20 P.M. CST, FOX/NFL: Los Angeles Rams (3-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
The Rams lost 55-40 to Tampa Bay last week at home. Not only did the home favorites lose, they cost a lot of people their survival pool. So the public is not fans of the Rams. Rams opened up as -2 on the road and the public quickly grabbed up the points.
So did the sharps, as this line currently site at Seattle as the now HOME favorite at -1.5. Thursday Night Football home favorites have gone 70-46 Against The Spread since 2003 according to Bet Labs Sports.
I expect to see some sharp buy back and push this closer to a PICK by kick off. L.A. is 3-1 ATS this season and the first time it is a regular season UNDERDOG since 2017. Seattle is 0-2 ATS at HOME this season. They did not cover as 9 point favorites at home against the Bengals and lost outright to New Orleans as the Seahawks were laying 5 that day. Seattle is 7-10-1 ATS at CentruyLick Field since the start of the 2017 season.
The SHARP bet is to take the points in a teaser with L.A. with the under-- currently at 50.
About the TOTAL. It opened up at a high 49 and 2/3 of the public bets moved it to 50. That is when the SHARPS bought the UNDER. Wind speed of 7-9 mph are expected tonight. Since 2003, when the wind is 5 mph or more in a divisional game and the line either stays the same or rises, the UNDER has gone 236-170.
5:00 P.M. CST, TBS: St. Louis Cardinals (91-71) at Atlanta Braves (97-65)
Miles Mikolas (9-14, 4.16 ERA) starts for the NL Central Champions. The NL West Champs, Atlanta Braves, counter with mid season signee Dallas Keuchel (8-8, 3.75 ERA). Nearly 3 out of 4 bets have taken the Braves at a soft -130. Despite the large amount of bets on Atlanta, the line has not changed. The other 1/4 of total bets on this game are coming in from the SHARPS-- keeping the line idle.
The PROS have hammered the total from 8.5 to 9. With temps in the 90s and winds blowing 5 MPH to dead center, SHARPS hit up the over.
7:37 P.M. CST, TBS: Washington Nationals ()93-69) at Los Angeles Dodgers (106-56)
Nats had a great NL Wild card win over the Brewers and are riding high. Patrick Corbin (14-7, 3.25 ERA) will be handed the ball against the Dodgers, who have the second best home record in the big leagues. Manager Dave Roberts elected to go with Walker Buehler (14-4, 3.26 ERA) in Game 1.
The Dodgers opened at a large -160 and the Nats at +150. There has not been any true sharp money to bring attention to movement. However, with the line currently at -170, it is easy to speculate that both the JOES and the PROS are on the Dodgers.
The TOTAL opened at 7.5 with a -120 juice to the bet. That means the money is on the UNDER but the house does not want to go to a straight 7 yet. House is cheering for an over.
NCAA Football Games
7:30 P.M. CST, ESPNU: Georgia Southern (1-3) at South Alabama (1-4)
Line opened up as Georgia Southern, 1-2-1 ATS, -13.5 road favorites. The SHARPS are clearly in on the South Alabama home dog, as the line has been moved down to -10.
The PROS also have fell in love with the UNDER. The TOTAL opened at 47 and has been bet down to 46. The UNDER has hit in 56% of the Thursday night NCAA games since 2005.
7:00 P.M. CST, ESPN: Temple (3-1) at East Carolina (3-2)
Temple opened up as a -13 point favorite in their American Athletic Conference opener at East Carolina. ECU started this season 1-2 but have won their last two games. On the season, Temple is 3-1 ATS and ECU is 2-3 ATS.
The SHARPS have been on the opposite side of the public. Nearly 70% of the public bets have been placed on Temple but the line has changed to -11.5. Showing a PRO trend toward the home dog.
The UNDER is 5-0 in ALL of ECU's games this season. The TOTAL opened at 49 and has been bet down to 47.5.
GOOD LUCK AT THE BOOKS, Y'ALL!