The SHARP Shooter: SUNDAY 9/22 Best Bets
Sharps, in gambling terms, are the professionals in the gambling industry. Rarely do the sharps fall on the "fun" bets like betting on the favorites or betting on the under total. The sharps usually go against public popular line-- taking advantage of inflated lines and mismatched numbers due to a large percentage of public bets on a certain play.
The easiest spots to find sharp plays are in nationally televised games, primetime games, and big games between popular teams with, teams with star players and rivals that get a lot of air time during the week on sports media.
It is important that you do your own homework and look at trends, as well. Simply going contrarian against the popular public bet won't always be profitable. Find the games that work best for your bet and your budget. Pay attention to sharp trends-- you rarely want to be on the wrong side of the pros.
NOON CST: Baltimore Ravens (2-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-0)
This sure to be shootout at Arrowhead Stadium is by far the most heavily bet and most intriguing game of Sunday's slate. Both teams enter this showdown with perfect 2-0 records and feature two of the league's most product and exciting young quarterbacks. Kansas City opened at 6.5-point home favorites. Roughly two-thirds of bets are laying the points with Patrick Mahomes and company. However, despite this lopsided Chiefs betting, the line has fallen down to 5.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Baltimore, with pros getting down hard on the Ravens at +6.5 and causing the line to move in their favor despite being the unpopular side. There is also smart money on the under. The total opened at 55 and has been bet down to 52 despite three-out-of-four wagers taking the over. Winds are expected at 12-14 MPH and John Hussey is the lead official, one of the best under refs in football (unders 61.3% since 2003).
NOON CST: Detroit Lions (1-0-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)
It's a misconception that sharps and squares are always on opposite sides of a game. Sure, wiseguys like to bet against the public and extract additional value from inflated or deflated lines. But they will not stubbornly go against a play or lay off simply because the public is in agreement. Sharps get down if they see an edge, period. This game is the perfect example. The line opened with the Eagles listed as 7-point favorites. Roughly 60% of bets are grabbing the points, causing the line to fall from -7 to -5. Some books are even down to 4.5. The total is also intriguing. It opened at 48 and has fallen to 45.5, triggering market-wide revers line movement. Two added bonuses for sharp under bettors: the wind is blowing at 7-9 MPH and Tony Corrente is the lead referee (unders have won 57.2% of the time with Corrente since 2005).
3:25 p.m. CST: Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-0)
The public doesn't know which way to go with the spread. They still want to believe in the Steelers even with Mason Rudolph taking over for Big Ben, but they also can't help but back the undefeated 49ers at home. Sharps, however, have taken a clear side. This line opened at San Francisco -7. Bets are split right down the middle, yet we've seen the line tumble a full point down to 6.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are even. So we know this drop was caused by pros with an edge loading up on Pittsburgh at the key number of +7. Wiseguys also see value on this under. The total opened at 44.5. Roughly three-out-of-four bets are on the over, yet the line has fallen to 43.5. This represents a classic case of sharp reverse line move on the under.
3:25 p.m. CST: New Orleans Saints (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (2-0)
This is a classic buy low, sell high situational play here for New Orleans. The public is down on the Saints, who have gone 0-2 ATS this season, are coming off a loss and just had Drew Brees go down with a 6-week thumb injury. On the flip side, Seattle is undefeated and at home. hammer the Hawks, right? Not so fast. The Seahawks opened as 4.5-point home favorites. Heavy betting (roughly 75% of wagers) is pounding Seattle, expecting an easy blowout and cover over Teddy Bridgewater and company. Pro bettors sat back and let public bias push this line to 5.5. That's when they got down on the Saints at an inflated value numbers. The line has since fallen to 4.5, essentially a sharp line freeze with clear liability on the contrarian, underdog road teams. Wiseguys also see value in a rare contrarian over. The public remembers Bridgewater failing to do anything on offense when he took over for Brees last week. The total opened at 44.5 and, despite two thirds of bets backing the under, the total rose up to 45.
7:20 p.m. CST: Los Angeles Rams (2-0) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)
The Rams enter this Sunday Night matchup with a perfect 2-0 record. The line opened at Los Angeles -3. The betting public absolutely cannot believe how low this spread is and roughly 80% of bets are laying the points as far as they can, making this the top public play of the day. Right off the bat, the fact that only 20% of bets are backing the Browns in a primetime, heavily bet spot gives Cleveland incredible contrarian value. However, there is some sharp action on the Browns as well. Despite the massively lopsided Rams betting, the line has only ticked up a half-point to 3.5. Plus the juice on the +3.5 is up to -120, which means it's likely to fall back down to 3. Essentially we are seeing a sharp line freeze with books worried about moving more than a half point off the opener because they have liability on the home dog. Sharps have also gotten down on the total. It opened at 50.5 and has been fallen to 47.5, indicating smart money hitting the under. Winds are expected to swirl at 13-15 MPH.
Also, for those who LOVE underdogs...
Historically, Week 3 is the best week of the year to back dogs. According to Bet Labs Sports, dogs have gone 120-95 ATS (55.8%) in Week 3 since 2003, winning +20.96 units. This means that a $100 bettor would be up $2,096 betting every dog over this time span. Dogs are already off to a hot start in general this season, going 19-13-1 ATS (59.4%) through two weeks.
Another way to profit in Week 3 is buying low on winless teams. If a team started 0-2 in their first two games, they've covered at a 56% clip in Week 3. The Jaguars just covered in this spot on Thursday night, beating the Titans 20-7 as +1.5 home dogs.
One of the best kept secrets in Week 3 is fading teams who played their first two games on the road. You would think that these teams are excited to be finally be home and play well in front of their home crowd, but instead they've produced a let down spot. Since 2003, betting against these teams coming home for the first time has resulted in a 28-11 ATS record (71.8%).
Here are the matches for today
Week 3 is already making history by featuring two dogs of +20 or more, believed to be the first time in NFL history. Since 2003, there have only been five teams favored by 20 or more (three of which were the Patriots in 2007) and these teams have gone 0-5 ATS. The Dolphins (+22.5 at Cowboys) and Jets (+21 at Patriots) both match today.
GOOD LUCK TODAY