The SHARP Shooter: MONDAY 9/30 Best Bet
Sharps, in gambling terms, are the professionals in the gambling industry. Rarely do the sharps fall on the "fun" bets like betting on the favorites or betting on the over total. The sharps usually go against public popular line-- taking advantage of inflated lines and mismatched numbers due to a large percentage of public bets on a certain play.
The easiest spots to find sharp plays are in nationally televised games, primetime games, and big games between popular teams with, teams with star players and rivals that get a lot of air time during the week on sports media.
It is important that you do your own homework and look at trends, as well. Simply going contrarian against the popular public bet won't always be profitable. Find the games that work best for your bet and your budget. Pay attention to sharp trends-- you rarely want to be on the wrong side of the pros.
LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT TONIGHT'S MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAME...
7:15 P.M. CST: Cincinnati Bengals (0-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3)
This absolutely very boring Monday Night Football game can only be watchable if you are betting. The public loves to bet the Steelers. The Steelers are just one of those teams that the public loves to cheer for and bet on joining the likes of the Cowboys, the Broncos, the Patriots, and the Packers.
This line opened with the Steelers listed as a 4.5 point favorite. The public has been on laying the points but the sharps are on taking the points and has moved this line to -3.5. The Bengals are currently 2-1 Against The Spread while Pittsburgh is 1-2 ATS.
On Sunday only 4 NFL teams that were favored covered the spread: Giants, Chargers, Seahawks, and Bears. The underdogs are now 38-23 ATS for the current NFL season.
The Steelers hung with the 49ers last week only because of a 5-2 takeaway advantage. That is not a trend. NFL defenses don't consistently get 5 turnovers, forced or unforced. Pittsburgh offense is not good- a very low passing line from Mason Rudolph (14-27-1-160) last week and a 5th league worst 3rd down conversion rate.
Finally, divisional dogs have a 12-7 ATS this season and, according to Bet Labs Sports, when Bill Vinovich is the lead ref (he is tonight), home teams have covered just 45.4% of the time since 2003. Take the points and bet the Bengals.
Slight movement on the TOTAL. The OVER/UNDER opened at 43.5 and has been bet up to 45. A rare sharp money on the over, divisional game usually trend to sharp money on the under because of familiarity.
GOOD LUCK AT THE BOOKS!